ICYMI: Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

The Wall Street Journal
October 5, 2012
By Kejal Vyas

Courtesy of: Reuters

CARACAS—Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has extended his lead over President Hugo Chávez in the latest survey released just days ahead of the hotly contested vote.

Venezuelans head to voting stations this Sunday in a race that is proving to be Mr. Chávez’s greatest challenge after nearly 14 years in office. The president has promised a deepening of his statist policies if he wins another six-year term. However, his campaign was slowed down over the past year as he battled an undisclosed type of cancer, which Mr. Chávez says he has overcome.

The survey conducted by local private pollster Consultores 21 found the challenger increasing his support to 51.8% while Mr. Chávez declined to 47.2%, according to Saul Cabrera, director of the firm. The survey was conducted as a vote simulation between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 using 1,546 respondents. It had a margin of error of 2.5%.

Earlier this week, Mr. Cabrera said that his firm didn’t use telephone surveys because they found respondents hesitant to answer questions on political affiliation to unknown people. He said those surveys typically found the number of undecided voters shoot up past 20%.

Mr. Capriles, a 40-year-old energetic state governor, has embarked on an aggressive nationwide “house by house” tour since winning the opposition primaries in February. The center-left candidate has pledged to keep many of the social programs that Mr. Chávez spearheaded but says he wants to run them more efficiently and sees a greater role for the private sector in Venezuela’s economy.

Both candidates officially ended their campaigns on Thursday. Mr. Chávez delivered his final appeal to voters during a rain-soaked gathering of thousands of red-clad government supporters who filled the streets of downtown Caracas. Meanwhile, Mr. Capriles capped off his campaign with speeches in three western Venezuelan states.

Though Consultores 21 is one of only two pollsters calling for a close race, most surveys have shown Mr. Capriles closing the gap in recent months.

Venezuelan electoral laws prohibit the publication of polls in the week ahead of elections but Mr. Cabrera said their privately commissioned survey was made available only to clients.

Consultores 21′s last poll published in September had recorded Mr. Capriles leading with 48.9% while 45.7% supported Mr. Chávez. That survey was conducted using a secret ballot and gave Mr. Capriles a wider lead than a separate poll conducted by the firm using open questions, which showed the contender holding a one point advantage.

Venezuela’s political arena remains highly polarized and some critics have challenged the validity of polls.

Write to Kejal Vyas at [email protected]

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