José R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff. He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.
Hugo Chávez has finally divulged he is being treated for cancer, but — in typical secretive fashion — offered no significant details as to the prescribed treatment, or just what impact his medical condition will have on his ability to govern Venezuela. He has hinted at potentially needing chemotherapy, a treatment which will necessarily debilitate his ability to govern, and perhaps campaign for Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election.
Due to Chávez’s authoritarian nature, this translates into a power vacuum that has to be filled — who does so will determine Venezuela’s foreseeable future. The situation is compounded by the fact that Chávez has left his would-be successor a veritable time-bomb of growing domestic woes.
The fact that the Venezuelan strongman has presided over a faction-ridden regime is hardly surprising, given that his government is bereft of institutions and power is wielded arbitrarily. Those competing for power within Chavismo are not Boy Scouts but hardliners that can be counted on to act more like Mafia dons at war than accountable public officials managing a democratic succession. (Remember, there are billions of dollars up for grabs here.)
The faction best positioned to govern in Chávez’s stead appears to be made up of those trusted by the Castro regime, which itself has an interest in keeping its economic lifeline alive and well. They include Vice President Elías Jaua and Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro, both colorless but loyal apparatchiks to Chávez and Castro. Also in this group is Chávez’s older brother Adán, a former Venezuelan ambassador to Cuba with close ties to the Castro regime. Adán is charisma-challenged, but has the right bloodlines.
Backing this faction will be a rogues’ gallery of international stakeholders that have profited immensely from Chávez’s largesse over the years. They will advocate for maintaining the status quo — with or without Chávez — through the 2012 elections. These include Russia, China, Iran, and, of course, Cuba, not to mention the ALBA countries that benefit from Venezuela’s petrodollars.
Another faction revolves around former Chavista officials who, for one reason or other, were removed from office by Chávez and would certainly be interested in regaining a measure of power with all its perks and privileges. They include National Assemblyman Diosdado Cabello (former Vice President), José Vicente Rangel (former Vice President), and Jesse Chacón (former Minister of the Presidency). These individuals, however, are not trusted by the Cubans because of their independent thinking. How the status quo faction deals with these individuals will define a post-Chávez Venezuela. Will they once again be allowed a cut of the action, or will they continue to be marginalized? If it’s the latter, hold on to your seats.
While the Cabello faction maintains strong ties to the military, the wild cards in this situation could be Minister of Defense General Henry Rangel Silva and Chief of Military Intelligence Hugo Carvajal. Both are Chavistas to the core but need to maintain low political profiles due to having been sanctioned by the United States for facilitating narcotics trafficking through Venezuela. That said, make no mistake about it, they both wield enough behind-the-scenes power to make or break Chávez’s successor.
What’s important to remember amidst all this cut-throat palace intrigue playing out over the next weeks and months in Venezuela is the increasing ungovernability of the country. In short, Chávez has left a mess. From the region’s highest inflation rate and electricity rationing to rising street crime and unsustainable spending programs, the current state of affairs in Venezuela is more than any consolidated government could handle, let alone one trying to piece itself together in the wake of such a polarizing leader as Hugo Chávez.
It is hard to tell what direction the Chavista rollercoaster will take next, but whatever it is, only one thing is certain – it is going to be a bumpy ride.