This article was originally posted by The Financial Times
Doing business in Venezuela is something of a lottery. Things can be going fine until the government decides it likes the look of your company and grabs it without warning. This is not unusual: businesses worth at least $24bn have been seized in the last five years.
To make things worse, the government has a poor record of paying up. It has about $14bn in pending liabilities from nationalisations and it is debatable whether the $10bn or so it has paid out so far represents fair compensation.
The latest company lucky enough to see some money is Casino, the French retailer. President Hugo Chávez said on Saturday he would hand over about $600m for an 80 per cent stake in the supermarket chain nationalised after a big devaluation in January, when Casino was accused of price gouging. The first instalment is promised for Tuesday, September 7. This may rile other companies nationalised before Casino but still awaiting compensation.
So what determines the government’s seemingly haphazard payment schedule?
It could be almost anything: the amount of cash the government has on hand; how much the business is worth; the nationality of the company (good diplomatic relations can smooth things along, while bad ones can be a real snag); whether the government has good relations with the company itself and how takeover negotiations go; and also the nature of the company and how important it is for the smooth functioning of Venezuela’s economy.