Aug
16
2011
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ICYMI: Analysis – Chavez seeks to contain voter angst over economy

Reuters - August 15, 2011

By Louise Egan

CARACAS – Venezuela’s economy is plagued by shortages, high inflation and crippling currency controls, but a massive spending spree by President Hugo Chavez will likely keep an incipient recovery alive, at least until a 2012 vote.

Polls show support for the charismatic leftist leader has edged up since he announced in June he had cancer. But unless he can generate as much sympathy for his economic stewardship, his re-election bid could be at risk.
In the short term, Chavez can paper over underlying problems with subsidies, price controls and ramped-up spending on his flagship health and housing programs for the poor.

But eventually, falling oil production by the OPEC nation combined with mounting debt will make it harder to finance his socialist “revolution,” analysts say, leading to sub-par growth and possibly another painful currency devaluation.

“We expect Venezuelan growth to lag behind the rest of Latin America over the coming years,” said David Rees, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London.

“Of course Chavez, current health concerns aside, will try to pump the economy ahead of next year’s presidential election with strong government spending.”

Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, according to OPEC. Yet it was the last in Latin America to pull out of recession, returning to growth in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The recovery advanced at a healthy clip in the first half of this year and is on track for 4.5 percent annual growth, the U.N.’s regional economic body ECLAC predicts.

High oil prices and public spending are powering the expansion. Since taking office in 1999, Chavez has nationalized large swaths of the economy, scaring off foreign investors and slowing domestic manufacturing, farm and even oil production as companies are reluctant to bet on new projects.

The 57-year-old former soldier’s illness has slowed him, but he has made an effort to show he remains in charge, displaying his characteristic flair during regular phone calls to state television programs. He has undergone two chemotherapy sessions in Cuba as Fidel Castro’s guest and says he is recovering well.

Oil prices may continue to work in Chavez’s favour, rallying since a sharp sell-off last week over the U.S. and European debt crises and fears of another global downturn.

“Even if we see a Lehmann-style sell-off like we saw in 2008 … as long as oil stays above $70 (42.69 pounds) a barrel, they’re in pretty good shape,” said Russ Dallen, head of Caracas Capital Markets.

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Aug
12
2011
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In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 8/12/11

In this week’s roundup… President Hugo Chávez returns to Cuba for a second round of chemotherapy;  Uncertainty still looms over the controversial, so-called “Sports Law”; Admission to Venezuela’s overcrowded prisons has been halted, triggering an overflow of inmates; three government officials are brought up on charges for the Rodeo prison riots; Rolling blackouts affect PDVSA’s oil output; and Venezuela finalizes new loans with Russia and China.

Chavez in Cuba for more cancer therapy, AFP

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was in Cuba on Sunday for a second round of chemotherapy treatment, following the removal of a cancerous tumor in June.

Sports chiefs say Venezuela’s government promises rules won’t restrict sponsorship, Washington Post via AP

Representatives of Venezuela’s professional sports leagues said Friday the government has assured them that new rules on private sponsorship will not strip critical revenue from teams across the South American country.

Police cells fill as Venezuela halts prison intake, Associated Press

Holding cells in Venezuelan police stations have begun to fill up a week after a government order to temporarily halt new admissions to the country’s overcrowded and violent prisons.

Venezuelan Authorities Charge 3 For Roles In El Rodeo Prison Riot, Wall Street Journal via Dow Jones Newswires

Venezuelan authorities Tuesday said they brought corruption charges against a member of the National Guard and two former directors of the El Rodeo prison facility, where a 27-day prison riot last month brought the South American country’s overcrowded incarceration system into the spotlight.

Venezuela Oil Upgraders Back Online After Power Outage – PDVSA, Wall Street Journal via Dow Jones Newswires

Venezuela’s four major oil upgraders have returned to normal operations after a power failure in a transmission line halted the facilities two days ago, state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, or PdVSA, said Wednesday.

Venezuela Finalizing New Loans Totaling $8B with China, Russia, WSJ via Dow Jones Newswires

Venezuela is finalizing agreements for two separate credit lines of $4 billion each with Russia and China, with a portion of the financing earmarked for military equipment for the South American nation, according to Venezuelan state media.

 
Jul
18
2011
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In Case You Missed It… Venezuela’s Docs Flee — So Does Chávez

Venezuela’s Docs Flee — So Does Chávez
It’s no coincidence that the president has returned to Cuba for medical attention.

By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
The Wall Street Journal

July 18, 2011

If we are to believe Hugo Chávez, doctors have removed a cancerous tumor the size of a baseball from somewhere inside his body. The type of cancer he has and the stage of its advance remain a Venezuelan state secret, but it is likely that he is a very sick man.

This news, for a leader who is only 56 years old, might have elicited a wide sweep of public sympathy under different circumstances. Instead, Mr. Chávez’s first-class treatment in a Cuban medical facility from a Spanish doctor has served to elevate the resentment many Venezuelans have about the declining quality of health care in their country.

The scarcity of basic goods in Venezuela is well documented. Just last week, the Venezuelan daily El Universal reported that its own survey of six supermarkets and government-owned food outlets found that out of 16 price-regulated staples, at least 10 were scarce.

Admittedly this was a narrow survey, but it garnered attention because it confirmed the daily experience of millions of Venezuelans. No cooking oil of any variety could be found in the six stores, and this included soy oil, which is not subject to price controls. Regulated cuts of meat were not available in the supermarkets; no price-controlled cheeses were found anywhere; processed corn flour was available in only one store.

Producers know why this is happening. In June, the food processor Polar asked the government to raise the price cap on corn oil because of the high cost of “the imported raw material.” Other companies have made similar appeals. But the government has good reason to resist: The easy money policy of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) has provoked the highest inflation in the region, even with price controls on many products. According to the Spanish-language news outlet Noticias Financieras, the BCV reported that the cost of personal-care products was up 30.5% in the 12 months ending June 30. Food and nonalcoholic beverages climbed 22.3% over the same period.

Yet it is in health care where Venezuelans are feeling the inflation pain most. Hospital services are up 39.7% year over year, doctor and paramedic services are up 21.5%, and the cost of medicines and medical equipment has risen 17.4%.

These cost increases refer, of course, to private clinics and goods that are not subject to price controls. Wherever prices can’t be raised, both quality and supply are deteriorating rapidly.

One needn’t be sick enough for a hospital to appreciate the problem. Venezuelans report shortages of everything from aspirin to cholesterol drugs, and it’s likely this has triggered hoarding, which has exacerbated the situation.

Most medicines sold in Venezuela, prescription or over-the-counter, are imported or contain imported materials. This means that the distributor has to pay the market rate in dollars to suppliers abroad. Obviously if the government sets the retail price below the cost for the importer, the transaction will create a loss.

Chávez-nomics has been even more devastating for doctors in the public hospitals. Dr. Douglas León Natera of the Venezuelan Medical Federation (FMV) told El Universal on June 16 that doctors earn a mere 2,600 bolivars (roughly $325 at the market exchange rate) monthly, and that even though hospitals have become targets of the country’s rising crime, the government has failed to provide protection for health-care staff. Doctors also cite scarce and low-quality resources and long hours. On June 30 the FMV called a strike to protest low pay and arduous working conditions. Last week Mr. Chávez offered them a 30% raise. They refused to yield. They are, however, continuing to treat urgent cases.

Pharmaceutical importers have been reluctant to complain publicly about their difficulties; large companies that offend Mr. Chávez can become targets of nationalization. It’s a bit more difficult to nationalize a doctor. A strike is just one option. Many of Venezuela’s best doctors have fled the country, which explains how it is, according to the FMV, that in public hospitals there are 130,000 patients waiting for surgery.

In its 2010 annual report, the ministry of health acknowledged the shortage of doctors, particularly in specialties such as anesthesiology, neonatal care, cardiovascular surgery, neurosurgery and child cardiology. Private hospitals are also deteriorating now as the poor turn up for care with government medical insurance, but the insurer doesn’t fulfill its obligation to pay.

The government has admitted that a large number of doctors have fled, but it says it’s not worried. More than 25,000 Venezuelan students are now enrolled in Venezuela’s new Bolivarian medical schools or in medical schools in Cuba. Unfortunately the curriculum is not public, and Venezuelans are worried that the students spend more time studying revolutionary politics than anatomy. Mr. Chávez seems to understand this, if nothing else. His surgeon hails from Spain.