Monthly Archives: September 2012

Sep
28
2012
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In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 9/28/12

Nine days remain before the Venezuelan elections and everyone is focused on whether opposition candidate Henrique Capriles will be able to turn his successful campaign into an electoral victory. Polls have shown his support consistently rising, while President Hugo Chávez’s conspicuous decrease in public appearances raises concerns about his health and his supposedly “cured” cancer. After 14 years of Chávez rule, many Venezuelans have switched sides because they are disillusioned with the president and his policies which have resulted in rampant inflation and crime, scarcity of everyday goods, and a housing shortage. Chávez has tried to counter these sentiments with massive pre-election spending, leaving the country’s international reserves at five-year lows. Meanwhile, Venezuelans in Miami, who overwhelmingly support the opposition, are going to great lengths to help voters travel to the polling station in New Orleans.

The autocrat and the ballot box, The Economist

ON SEPTEMBER 12th a queue of stationary vehicles kilometres long blocked the coastal highway that leads out of Puerto Cabello. “Politics,” said a resident, wearily, by way of explanation.

The Challenger, New York Times

Even on TV, the energy of the crowd comes through. The opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski is ripping into his stump speech, and the townspeople in the city of Maturin, in Eastern Venezuela, are eating it up: “Today,” he bellows, “I want you to think about your problems, and think: Has the government brought solutions to your problems?!”

In Venezuela, Capriles looks for an upset, Foreign Policy

The days preceding a presidential election are usually full of interesting story lines. In chaotic Venezuela, however, the narrative seems more jumbled than one would expect.

Venezuela Election Fuss: Polling Gaps, The Wall Street Journal

Venezuelan polling firms are painting starkly different pictures of the coming presidential election: One group shows President Hugo Chávez comfortably ahead, while another shows a tight race. The divide confuses voters and investors alike ahead of the Oct. 7 poll, in which the nearly 14-year incumbent hopes to win a new six-year term.

Narrowing Gap in Venezuelan Election, Fox News Latino

Venezuelans have been barraged with widely varying poll results ahead of the October 7 presidential election. The one thing that is clear is that, after nearly 14 years in office, President Hugo Chavez will face a strong rival for the first time.

Chávez Rival Rises in Venezuela Polls, The Wall Street Journal

Venezuelan opposition politician Henrique Capriles is gaining ground on President Hugo Chávez two weeks before a presidential election in this highly polarized country.

Some former allies ditch Chavez in Venezuela vote, CBS News

Liliana Carias used to hope President Hugo Chavez would change her life. Not anymore. She’s been living for years in a dirt-floor shack without running water, and after voting for Chavez in the last three presidential elections, the single mother of four said she’s tired of waiting for help.

Will Venezuela’s Pandemic of Crime Destabilize Hugo Chávez’s Regime?, Time

The three gangbangers are holed up in a small hut deep in the lush overgrowth of San Casimiro, a town two hours south of Caracas – and they’ll be there for the foreseeable future.

Venezuela’s pre-election spending spree saps exchange reserves, Financial Times

Is it a coincidence that Venezuela’s foreign exchange reserves hit a five-year low less than three weeks before presidential elections due on October 7?

Chavez Miami Foes Hire Planes to Vote in Venezuela Race, Bloomberg Businessweek

Alicia Rodriguez so dislikes President Hugo Chavez, and blames him for making her native Venezuela unsafe, that the 80-year-old retiree is flying 1,300 miles from her adopted home in Miami to cast a vote against him.

 
Sep
28
2012
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Henrique and Hugoliath: Even if he wins, the Chávez aura is gone

The Economist
September 28, 2012

20120929 LDP003 0 Henrique and Hugoliath: Even if he wins, the Chávez aura is gone

Courtesy of: Reuters

IMAGINE an election in which the incumbent routinely commandeers the nation’s airwaves for endless campaign broadcasts while his opponent gets just three minutes a day. The incumbent uses all the resources of the state—money, vehicles, buildings—for his campaign, and he has branded state social-welfare programmes as his own personal gift. He controls the courts and the electoral authority. His opponent’s supporters fear that the ballot is not secret, and that for those of them who work in the public sector, voting against the incumbent could cost them their jobs. That is Venezuela’s presidential ballot on October 7th. No wonder that Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate, calls the contest between himself and Hugo Chávez, who has ruled Venezuela for almost 14 years, one of David against Goliath, and that one of his allies says that the election will be “free but not fair”.

Yet despite all these unfair advantages, Goliath is threatened. Although he rules as an autocrat and has hollowed out Venezuela’s democracy, Mr Chávez’s legitimacy derives from the ballot box. That is both his greatest strength—and his biggest potential weakness. Unlike his idol, Fidel Castro, Mr Chávez has regularly held himself accountable to the voters, and so far always prevailed. There are two main reasons for that. Even his biggest detractors would have to concede that the president is a political communicator of genius, who enjoys a unique rapport with many poorer Venezuelans. Second, he has been fortunate that his rule has coincided with an unprecedented rise in the price of oil, his country’s main export. That has allowed him to shower tens of billions of dollars on social programmes, and to deploy largesse in order to pose as the champion of the downtrodden throughout Latin America. Had it not been for the oil boom, Mr Chávez would surely have long since become a footnote in Venezuelan history.

A convincing challenger

But there are clear signs that Mr Chávez’s appeal is finally fraying (see article). And so it should: by any objective standard, he has squandered his extraordinary oil windfall. His regime is corrupt and incompetent. His hounding of the private sector has made the country ever more dependent on the state oil company, which he has turned into a bloated all-purpose development agency. Venezuela’s infrastructure is decaying. Unchecked violent crime has made it one of Latin America’s most dangerous places.

For its part, the opposition has learned from its travails. It has put aside past squabbles and united behind Mr Capriles. He is sensibly trying to close Venezuela’s partisan divide by promising to maintain and improve most of Mr Chávez’s social programmes, while pledging to crack down on corruption and boost the economy by seeking the foreign investment the president has shunned.

For all these reasons, Mr Capriles deserves to win, and he just might do so. Although most opinion polls give the president a five-to-ten-point lead, many voters say they are undecided. And although the campaign has been unfair, the electronic voting system itself seems tamper-proof.

If Mr Capriles does win, it will be up to the army and the rest of Latin America to ensure that the result is respected. The unpicking of Mr Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution would make for a difficult transition. Even if Mr Chávez prevails once more, he is unlikely to enjoy the sort of landslide he got in 2006. His health is uncertain and his pre-election spending binge will force him to tighten the purse-strings later this year. Win or lose, Latin America’s most controversial autocrat is a diminished figure.

To read this article on The Economist, please click here.

 
Sep
28
2012
Posted by
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ICYMI: Henrique and Hugoliath: Even if he wins, the Chávez aura is gone

The Economist
September 28, 2012

20120929 LDP003 0 ICYMI: Henrique and Hugoliath: Even if he wins, the Chávez aura is gone

Courtesy of: Reuters

IMAGINE an election in which the incumbent routinely commandeers the nation’s airwaves for endless campaign broadcasts while his opponent gets just three minutes a day. The incumbent uses all the resources of the state—money, vehicles, buildings—for his campaign, and he has branded state social-welfare programmes as his own personal gift. He controls the courts and the electoral authority. His opponent’s supporters fear that the ballot is not secret, and that for those of them who work in the public sector, voting against the incumbent could cost them their jobs. That is Venezuela’s presidential ballot on October 7th. No wonder that Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate, calls the contest between himself and Hugo Chávez, who has ruled Venezuela for almost 14 years, one of David against Goliath, and that one of his allies says that the election will be “free but not fair”.

Yet despite all these unfair advantages, Goliath is threatened. Although he rules as an autocrat and has hollowed out Venezuela’s democracy, Mr Chávez’s legitimacy derives from the ballot box. That is both his greatest strength—and his biggest potential weakness. Unlike his idol, Fidel Castro, Mr Chávez has regularly held himself accountable to the voters, and so far always prevailed. There are two main reasons for that. Even his biggest detractors would have to concede that the president is a political communicator of genius, who enjoys a unique rapport with many poorer Venezuelans. Second, he has been fortunate that his rule has coincided with an unprecedented rise in the price of oil, his country’s main export. That has allowed him to shower tens of billions of dollars on social programmes, and to deploy largesse in order to pose as the champion of the downtrodden throughout Latin America. Had it not been for the oil boom, Mr Chávez would surely have long since become a footnote in Venezuelan history.

A convincing challenger

But there are clear signs that Mr Chávez’s appeal is finally fraying (see article). And so it should: by any objective standard, he has squandered his extraordinary oil windfall. His regime is corrupt and incompetent. His hounding of the private sector has made the country ever more dependent on the state oil company, which he has turned into a bloated all-purpose development agency. Venezuela’s infrastructure is decaying. Unchecked violent crime has made it one of Latin America’s most dangerous places.

For its part, the opposition has learned from its travails. It has put aside past squabbles and united behind Mr Capriles. He is sensibly trying to close Venezuela’s partisan divide by promising to maintain and improve most of Mr Chávez’s social programmes, while pledging to crack down on corruption and boost the economy by seeking the foreign investment the president has shunned.

For all these reasons, Mr Capriles deserves to win, and he just might do so. Although most opinion polls give the president a five-to-ten-point lead, many voters say they are undecided. And although the campaign has been unfair, the electronic voting system itself seems tamper-proof.

If Mr Capriles does win, it will be up to the army and the rest of Latin America to ensure that the result is respected. The unpicking of Mr Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution would make for a difficult transition. Even if Mr Chávez prevails once more, he is unlikely to enjoy the sort of landslide he got in 2006. His health is uncertain and his pre-election spending binge will force him to tighten the purse-strings later this year. Win or lose, Latin America’s most controversial autocrat is a diminished figure.

To read this article on The Economist, please click here.