Jul
29
2010
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Colombia dispute helps Chavez distract

This article was originally posted by The Associated Press

Venezuela’s diplomatic fight with Colombia comes at an opportune time for Hugo Chavez, who could benefit politically if he manages to shifts voters’ attention away from a recession, Latin America’s highest inflation and rampant crime.

Venezuela’s socialist president is playing up his dispute with U.S.-allied Colombia in an apparent attempt to rally nationalist sentiment against foreign enemies ahead of legislative elections in September.

He severed relations with Colombia last week in response to allegations that Venezuela has become a haven for Colombian rebels — and without missing a beat he sought to portray those accusations as a plot against him by Bogota and Washington. It’s a theme likely to be repeated Thursday at a meeting of South American foreign ministers in Ecuador.

The narrative helps Chavez play on supporters’ patriotism and redirect attention away from potentially damaging accusations. But even for a leader accustomed to making claims of conspiracies, his rhetoric has been particular strong.

“The possibility of an armed attack from Colombian territory on Venezuela’s territory has a probability that it’s never had before in many years. I’d say 100 years,” Chavez told a rally of supporters over the weekend. “I’m obliged to tell the people the truth: We are threatened by the Yankee empire.”

Chavez has long accused the U.S. of trying to oust him since he survived a 2002 coup, and he insists his concerns about a possible armed conflict are genuine. Yet Chavez’s forceful verbal counterattack — from threatening to cut off U.S. oil shipments to talking of a threat of war — also seem politically expedient.

He has plenty to be concerned about at home: 31 percent inflation, a recession that saw the economy contract 3.3 percent last year, unchecked crime and a scandal involving thousands of tons of food found rotting or beyond expiration dates in government storage.

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Jul
28
2010
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Tense energy ties between Venezuela and United States

This article was originally posted by Reuters Africa

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has threatened to cut off oil supplies to the United States in case of any military attack by Colombia as a row escalates over charges that Venezuela harbors leftist Colombian guerrillas.

Despite his heated rhetoric, the former paratrooper has never followed through on several previous threats to stop U.S. shipments. But energy ties between the two nations have become increasingly tense in recent years.

FALLING EXPORTS

* The United States is the Latin American OPEC member’s top customer, and Venezuela is currently the fifth biggest U.S. supplier after Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Nigeria. The volume of Venezuelan crude shipped to the United States has fallen 39 percent to 1.08 million barrels per day (bpd) last year from a peak of 1.78 million bpd in 1997, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says. (r.reuters.com/hyp99m)

* The decline is partly due to increasing sales by Caracas to customers such as Cuba, China and Iran, as well as stagnating production by Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

* U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration, for its part, wants to develop an energy policy that reduces foreign oil dependence.

THREATS TO SUPPLIES

* Chavez first warned back in February 2004 that he would shut off Venezuelan oil supplies to the United States if it tried to invade the Andean nation or impose a trade blockade against his country — after he accused former U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration of backing a short-lived coup attempt against him in 2002. The following month, he backed away from the threat and said he did not have any intention of damaging relations with Washington.

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Jul
27
2010
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Chaos in Caracas: Chavez Says U.S. Hastening Plans to Attack

This article was orginally posted by The Huffington Post

Earlier this month Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez ordered scientists to exhume the 180-year-old remains of his hero, independence leader Simón Bolívar. But over the weekend Chávez showed his biggest bone to pick is still with America.

On Saturday, Chávez announced on State Television that the United States is accelerating a plan to attack the oil-rich nation under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking, citing a memo from a secret source inside America. The announcement capped off a frenetic two-week period in Venezuela that began with the interment of Bolívar and included a move by Chávez to seize a major stake of Globovision, the country’s only remaining opposition broadcast outlet. By last Thursday, Chávez had formally severed diplomatic relations with backyard rival Colombia. And then, just for good measure, he threatened to halt all oil exports to America in the face of a U.S. attack.

Of course, this isn’t the first time the mercurial Venezuelan leader has made anti-American accusations of dubious merit, and Latin American historians say this is just another case of Chávez being Chávez. But one still wonders why the president is ramping up the rhetoric so drastically now. Some analysts have suggested that his antics serve as an opening salvo of aggression toward Juan Manuel Santos, who will be inaugurated president of Colombia on Aug. 7, when Álvaro Uribé, an ally of President Obama, steps down. But it’s equally likely that Chávez wants to upend his own country’s parliamentary elections in September.

Venezuela’s economy is sagging and its crime rate is spiking. Chávez’s rural base is upset with him after 30,000 tons of food, destined for poor neighborhoods, was discovered rotting in Venezuelan warehouses. Chávez’s socialist government is in no danger of losing the majority, but opposition parties are making inroads. In desperate need of diversion, Chávez has created a state of high alert.

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