Feb
7
2012
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Game Changer in U.S.-Venezuela Relations

DSC 0754 150x150 Game Changer in U.S. Venezuela RelationsJosé R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff. He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.

Bombshell testimony on Capitol Hill last week by U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper has dramatically altered the stakes in Washington’s relations with the Hugo Chávez regime in Venezuela. Speaking before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, Clapper said that Iranian leaders had changed their calculus and are now prepared to respond to perceived threats with terrorist attacks inside the United States.

Clapper said: “The 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States shows that some Iranian officials — probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime. We are also concerned about Iranian plotting against U.S. or allied interests overseas. Iran’s willingness to sponsor future attacks in the United States or against our interests abroad probably will be shaped by Tehran’s evaluation of the costs it bears for the plot against the ambassador as well as Iranian leaders’ perceptions of U.S. threats against the regime.”

The implications for U.S.-Venezuela relations are clear. Now that it has been assessed that Iran is prepared to attack the U.S. homeland, focus must now be placed on its capabilities and means to do so. That Hugo Chávez has made Venezuela — less than a three-hour flight from Florida — one of Iran’s most important international allies is now a paramount concern to U.S. security agencies.

Indeed, Chávez’s deep-seated economic, military, and intelligence relationship with Iran, running into the tens of billions of dollars, provides an enormous cover for covert operations and other destabilizing activities. That relationship runs from establishing Venezuela’s Margarita Island as a center for Iranian and Hezbollah operations in the Americas and facilitating Iran’s development of a nuclear capability by helping it obtain uranium, to blunting  sanctions by providing Iran’s access to Venezuela’s banking system and jointly trafficking in weapons (here and here) and narcotics. The DEA believes a weekly flight between Iran and Caracas is used for, among other nefarious purposes, smuggling South American cocaine to the Middle East.

Moreover, we know already that a member of the terrorist network plotting to detonate fuel tanks at JFK International Airport in New York in 2007 was arrested on the run to Venezuela, where he planned to board a Venezuelan flight to Tehran.

Lastly, the explosive documentary aired last month on Univisión, “The Iranian Threat,” included not only incriminating information on Venezuelan and Iranian diplomats discussing cyberattacks on sensitive U.S. computer systems (The State Department subsequently expelled the Venezuelan diplomat from the United States, where she had been re-posted), but also compelling evidence on how young Latinos are targeted for recruitment and paramilitary training in Iranian and Venezuelan camps visited by Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Colombian FARC.

As the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, put it succinctly in another hearing last week, “The Iranian regime has formed alliances with Chávez, Ortega, Castro, and Correa that many believe can destabilize the hemisphere. These alliances can pose an immediate threat by giving Iran – directly through the IRGC, the Qods force, or its proxies like Hezbollah – a platform in the region to carry out attacks against the United States, our interests, and allies.”

In addition, Clapper told the Senate that the intelligence community remains concerned about Iran’s ties to governments in the region and was tracking the issue closely, adding, specific to Iran’s activities in the region, “there is more to unfold here.”

Clearly, Clapper’s testimony reflects a substantial change in the U.S. government’s own calculus about Iran, Venezuela, and the Western Hemisphere.  If Iran is now prepared to strike the U.S. homeland, then all actions need to be pursued to debilitate its capability to do so, and that means targeting its presence in Venezuela. Hugo Chávez made a very dangerous bet when he introduced Iran to the Western Hemisphere. Now, he should be made to pay the price.

 
Nov
17
2011
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Chávez Buys a Crooked Election in Nicaragua

DSC 0754 150x150 Chávez Buys a Crooked Election in NicaraguaJosé R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff. He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.

Some within U.S. policymaking circles argue that Hugo Chávez represents no real threat beyond Venezuela’s borders. Therefore, a proactive U.S. policy isn’t really needed in response to Mr. Chávez’s destructive policies. That belief was once again disproven in Nicaragua, where earlier this month erstwhile dictator Daniel Ortega was unconstitutionally re-elected president courtesy of hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from Hugo Chávez.

It is estimated that since his first election in 2006, Ortega has received anywhere from $1.5 to $2 billion in assistance from the Venezuelan caudillo to consolidate his power in Nicaragua, run roughshod over its democratic institutions, and pave the way for his perpetual re-election. (Exact figures are impossible to pin down since the transfers are not made public. However, it is thought the aid from Chávez amounts to between 7 and 8 percent of Nicaragua’s GDP.)

Not surprisingly, Ortega’s election with 63% of the vote was marred by irregularities. Observers from both the European Union and the Organization of American States, the only groups allowed in Nicaragua to observe the vote (Nicaraguan NGOs were denied observer credentials), registered deep concerns about the process.

Luis Yáñez, a Spanish legislator, said 20 of the EU’s 90 observers reported “inexplicable” difficulties gaining access to polling stations.  “I don’t understand why there are so many obstacles,” she said, “so much opacity and so many tricks in a process that should be clean and transparent.”

The State Department weighed in with its concerns here.

Moreover, in the run-up to the elections, the government manipulated voter rolls, spent Venezuelan money lavishly on social programs, and bought up numerous media outlets to broadcast nothing but government propaganda.

That Ortega was even up for re-election was itself a violation of the Nicaraguan constitution, which expressly forbids a sitting president from running for re-election. Ortega, however, took care of that minor problem in 2009 when he got cronies on the Supreme Court to rule that the ban was a violation of his “human rights.”

There is no question that Ortega has made good use of Chávez’s largesse, from lining his own pockets to subsidizing scores of domestic programs targeting the marginalized and disadvantaged. There has been Zero Hunger, Zero Usury, Roads for the People, Housing for the People, scholarships, medicines, and even street parties – all funded by Albisa, a privately held company set up by Ortega to channel Chávez’s assistance into social programs as well as personal investments.  The books are closed to the public, however, and Ortega has full discretion to spend the money as he pleases.

It is true that Nicaragua is enjoying good economic times: prices for commodities are up and Ortega has by and large left the private sector alone to pursue its interests. The latter, in turn, has largely ceded the political arena to the Nicaraguan president and sees no benefit in challenging the status quo. It is a Faustian bargain.  Even as the economic sector remains vibrant, the institutions of democracy are in the process of being hollowed out, as they have been in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador.

Many now fear that Ortega will use his newest mandate to formally change his country’s constitution to legitimize his indefinite re-election. If his Sandinistas win 56 votes in the National Assembly (up from 38), their super-majority will allow him to pass any reform he wants without any need to confer with the opposition or anybody else. Ortega will thus control the legislature, the judiciary, the electoral authority, and the majority of the media.

Such is the fruit of Chávez’s largesse: gutting democratic institutions and paving the way for a return to caudilloism, or strongman politics in Latin America. This is precisely what U.S. policy has sought to overcome in the region over the last several decades, at the cost of millions of dollars in resources and extensive diplomatic efforts.

It may be that Ortega’s brand of authoritarianism poses no security threat to the United States, but it does represent a negation of the values we as a country have sought to project, and a betrayal of those who have risked their lives to see democracy take root in the region. The United States owes them the effort to outwardly defend democracy and the rule of law from its ever-present enemies.  That task should begin by identifying who our enemies are and proactively thwarting their endeavors.

 
Aug
18
2010
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U.S. Stands By Palmer for Venezuela Ambassador Post as Chavez Objects

This article was originally posted by Bloomberg

The U.S. is sticking by its nomination of Larry Palmer to be the next ambassador to Venezuela after President Hugo Chavez said he wouldn’t be welcome in the country.

“He has the qualifications to engage Venezuela effectively and resolve our bilateral differences,” State Department spokesman Phillip J. Crowley said in an e-mail today.

Palmer evoked Chavez’s ire last month when he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Venezuela has “clear ties” with terrorist groups and its army suffers from low morale. Chavez, who said Aug. 8 that Palmer “can’t come here,” on monday urged President Barack Obama to appoint another candidate if he wants better relations between the countries.

“The healthiest option would be to look for someone else,” Chavez said in a telephone interview broadcast on state television. “We’d surely have to expel him.”

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