The Wall Street Journal
September 25, 2012
By Ezequiel Minaya and David Luhnow

Courtesy of: Zuma Press

CARACAS—Venezuelan opposition politician Henrique Capriles is gaining ground on President Hugo Chávez two weeks before a presidential election in this highly polarized country.

A pair of surveys published Tuesday showed a tighter race for the Oct. 7 election than many had expected. Local pollster Varianzas had Mr. Chávez, who has been in power nearly 14 years and seeks a new six-year term, with a 49.7% to 47.7% lead, within the poll’s margin of error.

Datanálisis, one of Venezuela’s most respected pollsters, showed Mr. Chávez with a larger 10-point lead—47% to 37%. But even in the Datanálisis poll, which has a margin of error of 2.4%, Mr. Chávez’s lead may not be as safe as it sounds. Since April, Mr. Capriles has closed the gap to 10 points from 17 points, suggesting the 40-year-old state governor is winning over undecided voters.

The Datanálisis survey showed as many as 15% of the electorate still undecided—a margin bigger than Mr. Chávez’s lead. If that group turns out to vote on Election Day, and favors Mr. Capriles—two big ifs—the gap virtually disappears.

“The chances of a victory for the opposition are higher than what the market is pricing,” wrote Alejandro Grisanti, an analyst for Barclays, in a note to clients following the Datanálisis poll results. Investors in the past week have bid down the price of Venezuela’s 10-year bonds, anticipating a Chávez win.

For much of the past year, Mr. Chávez, 58 years old, has held a commanding lead in most polls. His government has ramped up social spending and used its control of most television and radio to flood the airwaves with ads.

But the race has tightened thanks to an intensive door-to-door campaign from Mr. Capriles, a center-left candidate who has worked hard to reassure Venezuela’s poor majority that he will keep Mr. Chávez’s popular social programs intact.

“Capriles is the best candidate the opposition has put up against Chávez,” said Luis Vicente Leon, head of Datanálisis.

Mr. Chávez, meanwhile, has been much less active on the campaign trail. The Venezuelan leader is hampered by health concerns after a yearlong battle with cancer, and his government hasn’t disclosed the cancer type or its prognosis. Mr. Chávez claims he is cured.

“He is sick or he was,” Mr. Leon said. “What is clear is that he does not have [Capriles's] vitality.”

Meanwhile, another big local pollster, Consultores 21, had Mr. Capriles ahead by two percentage points in a recent poll. The poll registered only 5% undecided voters. “The important number to look at is support for Chávez, and virtually all polls agree that he is just under 50%,” said Luis Christiansen, the company’s pollster. “As long as he’s under that level, he’s very vulnerable.”

A close election provides an opportunity for Venezuela to end the rule of Mr. Chávez, a former army tank commander who has nationalized much of the economy, used high oil prices to ramp up public spending on the poor, and critics say polarized Venezuelans by pitting the poor against the middle and upper classes—what Mr. Chávez calls “los escualidos,” or “the squalid ones.”

But a contested election also raises risks of instability in the country with the world’s largest oil reserves that is a major oil exporter to the U.S. Some analysts wonder whether Mr. Chávez or his impassioned supporters would be willing to give up power in the case of a narrow loss.

“Listen, if Chávez loses, then I’m taking to the streets,” said Felicita Gerome, a 77-year-old retiree in the 23 de Enero neighborhood, which is home to pro-Chávez militias.

During the campaign, Chávez supporters have on occasion tried to physically prevent the Capriles campaign from entering poor neighborhoods, known as “barrios.” On a recent day in the coastal town of Puerto Cabello, Chávez supporters burned several trucks belonging to the Capriles camp.

Mr. Chávez hasn’t publicly mentioned the periodic clashes between his supporters and the opposition. He does say his government is the only hope for stability and peace for Venezuela.

Despite the narrowing race, Mr. Leon suggests Mr. Chávez still has the upper hand. In an interview before the latest results, Mr. Leon said that in past presidential elections, many of the undecided voters in polls stayed at home—giving Mr. Chávez comfortable victories.

In slums surrounding Caracas, the capital, it is easy to find support for the president. Jesus Alberto Mijares, a 57 year-old bus driver, said he was voting for Mr. Chávez because of social programs like Barrio Adentro, which provides free basic health care in small clinics staffed by Cuban doctors. “Before Chávez, we never saw doctors in the barrios. The Cubans even make house calls,” said Mr. Mijares, who says he has been treated several times for ulcers.

In many barrios, however, there is also a growing sense that it is time for a change, even among those who have voted for Mr. Chávez in the past.

“Someone in power too long becomes accustomed to power, and becomes a dictator,” said Darleny Osorio, a 56-year-old teacher in the Ruiz Pineda barrio. She said she has always voted for Mr. Chávez—but no longer.

Write to Ezequiel Minaya at [email protected] and David Luhnow at [email protected].

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