Successors

Apr
18
2013
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ICYMI: Venezuela’s Maduro Fails to Imitate Chávez’ Success

Atlantic Sentinel
April 15, 2013
By Nick Ottens

130414 nicolas maduro ap 605 e1366308092446 ICYMI: Venezuela’s Maduro Fails to Imitate Chávez’ Success

Courtesy of: Associated Press

Acting president Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner in Venezuela’s election on Sunday, defeating the opposition’s candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski by over two hundred thousand votes, according to the state’s election board.

Maduro succeeds the Latin American nation’s fiery socialist leader Hugo Chávez who died of cancer last month after fourteen years in power.

Although Capriles, who won 44 percent of the votes in last year’s election against Chávez and just under 49.1 percent on Sunday, according to the official results, accused the ruling party of fraud and demanded a recount, it is unlikely that Maduro’s victory will be reversed. “We will know what to do if someone raises their insolent voice against the people,” the socialist warned on Sunday night.

Still, Maduro’s unexpectedly narrow win—opinion polls had predicted a landslide—casts doubt on the ruling party’s ability to hold onto power without its popular leader.

Chávez’ protégé lacks the charisma that enabled the deceased former president to win four consecutive elections and influence the politics of neighboring countries, including Bolivia and Ecuador where Presidents Evo Morales and Rafael Correa, respectively, imitated his populist left wing policies.

Risa Grais-Targow, an associate with the Eurasia Group consultancy, expects that Maduro, lacking a base of support of his own, “will struggle to manage internal disputes, especially as social discontent rises in a deteriorating economic environment.”

She writes at Quartz that the new president’s priority will likely be to reverse social discontent, “which means he is unlikely to make needed economic adjustments.”

Foreign exchange and price controls will remain in place. Maduro might pursue even more stringent state controls to “prove his revolutionary credentials,” like pushing an antitrust law through parliament.

The National Assembly is considering a law that would empower the government “to confiscate any business that it deems not acting in the public interest,” writes José R. Cárdenas at Foreign Policy. It would install a panel that decides whether a company has a “decisive domain” over the setting of prices or other market conditions in a particular industry, without stipulating what “decisive domain” means.

In other words, any successful company runs the risk of confiscation at any time by crossing the government’s arbitrary line of being “too successful.” And with the judicial sector also controlled by the government, private companies are left with no outlet to appeal adverse decisions.

Cárdenas predicts that the law will depress private sector production and further tilt the playing field in favor of state owned enterprises which are exempt from it.

Chávez hugely expanded the public sector and nationalized key industries, including oil. But lack of industrial development has forced Venezuela to import refined oil products even if it is the world’s tenth largest petroleum exporter.

The country has also had to cope with energy and food shortages as well as skyrocketing inflation that is projected to top 30 percent this year.

Market reforms are needed to revitalize Venezuela’s economy which the consultancy firm Ecoanalitica projects will expand less than 1 percent this year. Maduro, however, lacks the political credibility and quite probably the will to deviate from the party line and tamper with his predecessor’s legacy.

Significant changes in economic policy are unlikely in the short term even if more Venezuelans than preelection polls suggested apparently agree with Capriles that the current model is “not viable.”

To read this article at the Atlantic Sentinel, please click here.

 
Mar
8
2013
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In Case You Missed It…Articles Roundup Week of 3/8/13

hugochavezobit e1362779431348 In Case You Missed It...Articles Roundup Week of 3/8/13

Courtesy of: Associated Press

This week: Nicolás Maduro announced Tuesday that President Hugo Chávez had succumbed to cancer, leaving behind a sharply divided country; with Chávez’s passing and subsequent funeral comes the question of his contradictory legacy, highlighted by his socialist policies; undoubtedly, Chávez will be remembered as a leader who transformed and shaped Venezuela; as Venezuela adjusts and evaluates its economy under Chávez, it becomes clear that his socialist agenda fell short of his promises; and like other socialist leaders, Chávez will be embalmed and put on permanent display inside a military museum. With Chávez’s death and upcoming elections, Venezuela’s interim leader Maduro is thrust into the spotlight; with Chávez gone, the U.S. reacts cautiously, weighing the prospects for a diplomatic thaw; a transition in Venezuela opens the path for eventual investment and expertise opportunities from oil companies; and Cuba mourns Chávez’s passing, while worrying about what the future may hold for the Cuba-Venezuela relationship. Finally, concern emerges over armed Chávez supporters poised to defend the revolution; the Venezuelan government plans to expel a U.S. Embassy official for allegedly meeting with military officers and planning to “destabilize the country”; Brayan Villarreal, a pitcher for the Detroit Lions, says his family was attacked in their home near Caracas; and the homicide rate in Venezuela between January and February reveals escalating violence in the country.

Chávez Dies, Leaving Sharp Divisions in Venezuela, The New York Times

President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela died Tuesday afternoon after a struggle with cancer, the government announced, leaving behind a bitterly divided nation in the grip of a political crisis that grew more acute as he languished for weeks, silent and out of sight, in hospitals in Havana and Caracas.

On Eve of His Funeral, Debating Chávez’s Legacy, The New York Times

Heads of state from around Latin America flocked to Venezuela for the funeral on Friday of Hugo Chávez, a tribute to the undiminished drawing power of the charismatic leftist leader, although perhaps not to the lasting influence of his socialist-inspired policies.

Obituary: Hugo Chavez – socialist showman who transformed Venezuela, Reuters

At two defining moments of his rule, Venezuela’s theatrical leader Hugo Chavez took a small silver crucifix from his pocket and held it above his head.

Venezuela’s Economy Under Chavez, by the Numbers, The Wall Street Journal

Many Venezuelans, mainly among the poor, are intensely mourning the passing Tuesday of President Hugo Chávez, whom they viewed as their “champion”, a father figure who after 14 years in power is taking on near saint-like meaning for them.

Like Lenin and Mao, Hugo Chavez’s embalmed body to be put on permanent display in Venezuela, Washington Post

Vladimir Lenin, Mao Zedong, Ho Chi Minh, and now Hugo Chavez.

Venezuela’s interim leader thrust into spotlight, CNN

He began his career as a bus driver in Caracas, and then rose through the ranks to become a member of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s inner circle.

U.S. Hopes Chavez’s Passing Could Smooth Relations with Venezuela, TIME

U.S. officials are cautiously optimistic that the death of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez could improve relations between the two countries, but they aren’t holding their breath.

Chavez Death Could Open Up Venezuela Oil, Wall Street Journal

The death of Hugo Chavez may have plunged Venezuela into political uncertainty. But oil markets have remained calm so far.

Cubans mourn Venezuela’s Chavez, worry about the future, Reuters

In many cities and towns, people filed through government-arranged memorials to pay tribute to the man who poured oil and money into the island nation to help revive its economy after a near-collapse in the 1990s.

The Wild Card in Venezuela: Armed Chavistas, ABC News

The banner just inside the poor neighborhood in western Caracas reads, “Loyal to Comandante Chavez.” The guard at the gate ensures no one enters without permission — not even the police.

Venezuela to expel U.S. Embassy official, Associated Press

Venezuela’s vice president, Nicolas Maduro, says the government of President Hugo Chavez plans to expel a U.S. Embassy official for meeting with military officers and planning to destabilize the country.

Brayan Villarreal’s family attacked, ESPN

Brayan Villarreal’s family home in Venezuela was attacked by three armed robbers who threatened to kidnap his relatives in the future, his agent told ESPNDeportes.com.

Number of homicides in Venezuela hits 2,576 in January-February, El Universal

Venezuela’s homicide rate in the first two months of the year dropped one percent with respect to the same period in 2012, according to figures recorded by the Scientific, Criminal and Forensic Investigation Agency (Cicpc).

 
Jan
3
2013
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An Ailing Chávez Hides From View As A Constitutional Crisis Looms

hugo chavez campaign stump An Ailing Chávez Hides From View As A Constitutional Crisis Looms

Courtesy of: Reuters

In Venezuela, the significance of events during the last several weeks cannot be overstated. After promising the Venezuelan people that he was “totally free” of the abdominal cancer that plagued him for more than a year, Hugo Chávez won re-election on October 7. Two months later, however, a visibly weak Chávez announced that his cancer had returned. He was rushed to Cuba for surgery on December 11; reports later surfaced that he had suffered serious “complications” after his fourth operation in 18 months.

Before leaving the country, Chávez designated newly-named Vice President Nicolas Maduro as his successor. According to Venezuela’s constitution, if a president dies or is unable to serve, a new election must be called within 30 days. A pallid Chávez, speaking on December 8th at the presidential palace, asked Venezuela to “elect Nicolás Maduro” if a special election occurs.

Though the special election requirement seems unambiguous, any transition of power is likely to be protracted and – because to several confusing provisions in Venezuela’s constitution – perhaps quite contentious. Chávez is due to be re-inaugurated on January 10th. As Foreign Policy explained this week, Chávez’s inability to be sworn in will pose significant problems for his party and thereby, the future of his self-styled socialist revolution:

“The problem for Maduro is that his term as vice president expires January 10th, when the current presidential term ends and a new one begins. Chávez, who is also president-elect, may not be healthy enough to be sworn in and appoint him vice president again. If that doesn’t happen, Maduro will be out of a job, even though he would remain the ruling party candidate in any follow-up election.”

If Chávez misses his inauguration, National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello would then assume control of the government until the President is finally sworn in or declared by the Assembly to be “totally absent.” Such a declaration, however, is unlikely to occur unless the President actually dies. Indeed, some of his socialist allies have suggested postponing the inauguration to accommodate Chávez’s health – a constitutionally dubious step that has drawn criticism from opposition leaders.

Even within the ruling socialist party there are divisions. Maduro and Cabello have emerged as the figureheads in a behind-the-scenes battle over the future of the party. Already faced with a slumping economy, a much-needed currency devaluation and a cancer-stricken president, Venezuelans may well have a full-blown constitutional crisis on their hands to start 2013.

If recent reports are to be believed, the country draws ever closer to such a scenario. Multiple outlets report that Chávez, his immune system ravaged by the cancer, suffered a severe respiratory infection following his most recent surgery. News also emerged that the infection was so serious it prevented Chávez from breathing, requiring doctors to perform a tracheotomy. Last month, Maduro sped to Havana to speak with the ailing president, sparking rumors that Chávez was on his deathbed.

For their part, members of the Venezuelan opposition have demanded the government tell ‘the whole truth’ about the president’s health. So far, the information released has lacked much needed specifics to determine the likelihood of Chávez’s survival.

For Venezuelans seeking clarification from the president himself, it may be a long wait. Chávez has not been seen or heard from since his statement nearly a month ago on December 8th. And this week, a source inside the Cuban hospital claimed that Chávez has been put in an induced coma, is “only kept alive by life support,” or may have even died. Chávez’s end may indeed be near, but we can be sure this is only the first chapter of a critical period for the future of Venezuelan’s government.