Jan
4
2013
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ICYMI: Venezuelans demand answers on Chavez’s health

Washington Post
January 3, 2013
By Olga Khazan

Venezuelan officials have been tight-lipped about the health status of President Hugo Chavez, causing rumors about Chavez’s health status to swirl on Twitter and in the Latin American media.

Chavez has not been seen or heard from since a Dec. 11 surgery for an undisclosed type of cancer, and his administration has released few details about his status other than saying his condition remains “delicate” due to complications from a respiratory infection.

Chavez, 58, was elected for a fourth term in office with 54 percent of the vote in October and is due to be sworn in on January 10. If he dies before that date, the chairman of the National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, will succeed him until new elections are held, but if he dies after that date, the vice president, Nicolas Maduro, would take over.

In the meantime, the suspense is killing Venezuela.

Spanish daily ABC kicked things off with this analysis of Chavez’s condition yesterday (translated from the Spanish):

Hugo Chavez has entered an induced coma in the last few days, with his vital signs very weakened, and maintained only through artificial assistance by the Havana hospital where he was admitted. Sources consulted by ABC confirmed Monday that they were soon planning to disconnect the artificial assistance that prolongs the life of the Venezuelan president.

The article goes on to say that Chavez “has a constant fever, won’t respond to antibiotics, hasn’t eaten solid food for three weeks, had 43.4 centimeters of intestine removed and a tracheotomy, among other health complications,” according to the Huffington Post.

Members of Chavez’s family, on the other hand, say his condition is stable. Chavez’s son-in-law Jorge Arreaza, who serves as minister of science, technology and innovation, tweeted, “Compatriots, DO NOT believe the ill intentioned rumors. President Chavez has spent the day calm and stable, accompanied by his children.”

But armchair oncologists have already weighed in:

“[Chavez] continues on artificial support at this point they are only prolonging unnecessary suffering,” José Rafael Marquina, a Venezuelan doctor who lives in Florida and is an opponent of Chavez, tweeted Wednesday.

“Most likely, he is showing signs of renal failure and a lung infection. But the biggest problem is that, with the delicate situation of the patient, his immune system must be weakened,” Marquina, who claims to receive inside information from the Venezuelan president’s medical team, told Colombian radio station Caracol.

On Twitter, the hashtag #TellTheTruthAboutChavez, as well as its Spanish equivalent, trended in Venezuela this week. Chavez supporters posted messages wishing for a speedy recovery:

“If all of us Venezuelans ask GOD with fervor and faith, surely he will have tend to our pleas, let us pray for Hugo Chavez and for his health,” tweeted Enrique Padron, a Venezuelan musician.

While others simply speculated as to who would take his place:

“People were saying the problem wasn’t Chavez but those that surrounded him . . . and now that’s exactly who we’re in the hands of #TellTheTruthAboutChavez,” tweeted Marcos Rodriguez.

The information vacuum has also provided fodder for Chavez’s opposition, which has called for the government to schedule constitutionally-mandated elections within 30 days if Chavez is too ill to return from Cuba, where his most recent surgery took place.

“To make us believe the president is governing shows a lack of seriousness that borders on irresponsibility,” opposition leader Ramon Guillermo Aveledo said at a news conference in Caracas, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Because Chavez’s vice president is more pro-Cuban than the National Assembly chair, Cuba may have an incentive to delay reporting Chavez’s condition for another week, argues Venezuela blogger Francisco Toro.

“And given the impenetrability of Cuban state secrecy, it’s hard not to speculate that even if the president has already died, we would have no way of knowing it,” Toro writes.

On the other hand, Venezuela is in poor financial shape, with large deficits that will likely necessitate unpopular austerity measures soon. In that case, National Assembly head Cabello may not be interested in running Venezuela — and fixing its economy — anyway.

Meanwhile, Arreaza has continued his optimistic Twitter campaign: Don’t worry, nothing to see here.

“Commander Chavez still battling hard and sends all his love to our people. Perseverance and patience!!!”

To read this article on the Washington Post, please click here.

 
Jan
3
2013
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An Ailing Chávez Hides From View As A Constitutional Crisis Looms

hugo chavez campaign stump An Ailing Chávez Hides From View As A Constitutional Crisis Looms

Courtesy of: Reuters

In Venezuela, the significance of events during the last several weeks cannot be overstated. After promising the Venezuelan people that he was “totally free” of the abdominal cancer that plagued him for more than a year, Hugo Chávez won re-election on October 7. Two months later, however, a visibly weak Chávez announced that his cancer had returned. He was rushed to Cuba for surgery on December 11; reports later surfaced that he had suffered serious “complications” after his fourth operation in 18 months.

Before leaving the country, Chávez designated newly-named Vice President Nicolas Maduro as his successor. According to Venezuela’s constitution, if a president dies or is unable to serve, a new election must be called within 30 days. A pallid Chávez, speaking on December 8th at the presidential palace, asked Venezuela to “elect Nicolás Maduro” if a special election occurs.

Though the special election requirement seems unambiguous, any transition of power is likely to be protracted and – because to several confusing provisions in Venezuela’s constitution – perhaps quite contentious. Chávez is due to be re-inaugurated on January 10th. As Foreign Policy explained this week, Chávez’s inability to be sworn in will pose significant problems for his party and thereby, the future of his self-styled socialist revolution:

“The problem for Maduro is that his term as vice president expires January 10th, when the current presidential term ends and a new one begins. Chávez, who is also president-elect, may not be healthy enough to be sworn in and appoint him vice president again. If that doesn’t happen, Maduro will be out of a job, even though he would remain the ruling party candidate in any follow-up election.”

If Chávez misses his inauguration, National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello would then assume control of the government until the President is finally sworn in or declared by the Assembly to be “totally absent.” Such a declaration, however, is unlikely to occur unless the President actually dies. Indeed, some of his socialist allies have suggested postponing the inauguration to accommodate Chávez’s health – a constitutionally dubious step that has drawn criticism from opposition leaders.

Even within the ruling socialist party there are divisions. Maduro and Cabello have emerged as the figureheads in a behind-the-scenes battle over the future of the party. Already faced with a slumping economy, a much-needed currency devaluation and a cancer-stricken president, Venezuelans may well have a full-blown constitutional crisis on their hands to start 2013.

If recent reports are to be believed, the country draws ever closer to such a scenario. Multiple outlets report that Chávez, his immune system ravaged by the cancer, suffered a severe respiratory infection following his most recent surgery. News also emerged that the infection was so serious it prevented Chávez from breathing, requiring doctors to perform a tracheotomy. Last month, Maduro sped to Havana to speak with the ailing president, sparking rumors that Chávez was on his deathbed.

For their part, members of the Venezuelan opposition have demanded the government tell ‘the whole truth’ about the president’s health. So far, the information released has lacked much needed specifics to determine the likelihood of Chávez’s survival.

For Venezuelans seeking clarification from the president himself, it may be a long wait. Chávez has not been seen or heard from since his statement nearly a month ago on December 8th. And this week, a source inside the Cuban hospital claimed that Chávez has been put in an induced coma, is “only kept alive by life support,” or may have even died. Chávez’s end may indeed be near, but we can be sure this is only the first chapter of a critical period for the future of Venezuelan’s government.

 
Jul
10
2012
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Who’s Next Venezuela: Another Potential Successor

Diosdado Cabello, President of the National Assembly

Diosdado Cabello Whos Next Venezuela: Another Potential Successor

Courtesy of: AVN

Long an ally of the Venezuelan President, National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello has also found his name put forward as one of the possible successors to Hugo Chávez.

Cabello’s relationship with Chávez goes back as far as the attempted 1992 coup, which landed them both in jail. Since then he has continued to rise through the ranks of Chávez’s party, serving as vice president, and even acting president during the 2002 coup when Chávez was ousted for two days. He loyally held the office only until Chávez was able to return.

The 49-year-old has served in a variety of cabinet positions under Chávez before being elected to his current post as President of the National Assembly. He is seen as a powerful leader within the PSUV and a trusted ally of Chávez.

Cabello has frequently appeared at Chávez’s side during public events. He is also known for his fiery tongue, and is often a leading PSUV member to publically contradict speculation about Chávez’s health. He is also a political attack dog, frequently launching scathing criticisms of the opposition. He has been on the defensive lately, however, forced to defend Chávez’s heavy use of the government media he insisted, curiously, that “Chávez is already in the streets” after questions emerged regarding when the president’s next campaign event would take place.

Analysts point out his background as a former soldier, like Chávez, could help him maintain ties with the military during the transition. Thus, even if he is not chosen as the next president, his support might be necessary to ensure a smooth and peaceful transition.

A short but fiery controversy sprung up in May when posters supporting Cabello for president appeared in Caracas. Although PSUV officials dismissed these posters as the work of provocateurs, their mere appearance, in addition to the fact that Cabello felt them worthy of a denial, shows that tensions do exist within the party.

Like the other successors, Cabello has neither the charisma nor the popular appeal of Chávez. In fact, polls show that he is the least popular among the leaders of Chávez’s party. In fact, he has actually already lost to opposition candidate Henrique Capriles once, in the 2008 campaign for governor of Miranda state.

He also has ties to the business community, which may hurt his image among the Chávez’s most staunchly socialist supporters. And recently, Cabello was also alleged to have ties to drug traffickers by former judge Eladio Aponte Aponte, further damaging his chances.

Given Cabello’s unpopularity among Venezuelans and ties to drug trafficking, his is perceived by some to be towards the bottom of the short list to be Chávez’s successor. However, his ties to the military and proven loyalty to the party practically guarantee that he will play an important role in any succession.