Over the past several months, What’s Next Venezuela has reported on the uncertainty surrounding Hugo Chávez’s health, including the speculation about who will take Chávez’s place on the ballot should he be unable to stand for re-election on October 7. We continue examining potential successors today, with a profile of Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro.
Nicolás Maduro, Foreign Minister
Courtesy of: AVN
From lowly beginnings as a bus driver for political campaigns, Nicolas Maduro has risen to power and influence as the Foreign Minister in Hugo Chávez’s administration and a leading candidate to succeed the president.
Since June 2011, around the time Venezuelans first learned of Chávez’s cancer, Maduro has emerged as one of Chávez’s closest officials and advisors, both in Cuba and in Venezuela, and the one in charge of announcing the president’s messages to the Venezuelan public. He took a leading role after Chávez announced his intent to leave the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), voicing accusations against the IACHR and making headlines while Chávez received treatment in Cuba. Speculation intensified earlier this year as rumors swirled that Chávez was poised to name Maduro as Venezuela’s new Vice President.
That Chávez trusts Maduro with his most important assignments is corroborated by a Wikileaks cable which suggests Maduro may be at the top of the list because of his fierce loyalty to Chávez. The two have a long history, going back to the founding of the PSUV and Maduro’s work on Chávez’s 1998 presidential campaign. Maduro has already spent six years as chancellor, an unprecedentedly long spell in Chávez’s administration.
The leaked e-mail also asserts that Maduro is a more pragmatic leader than others in the PSUV, which might be necessary to keep the party from fracturing during the transition. It may help him to prevent infighting within the PSUV, which could cause serious problems in addition to any opposition challenges the transition leader will face.
Moreover, through the foreign ministry, Maduro has become the darling of Havana, establishing strong ties with the Castros. This may be critical, as recent news stories have shown that maintaining the relationship between Venezuela and the Castros will be a key expectation of any Chávez successor.
He has popular appeal as well, and charisma that technocrat Elias Jaua lacks. He has fared better than other PSUV members in polls when pitted against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, although he would still have to make up a significant gap in just a few short months. Meanwhile, Maduro’s profile within Venezuela has continued to grow as he routinely appears both in pictures and videos next to the president, both in Cuba and during the recent announcement of Chávez’s signature new labor law.
However, several things indicate that Maduro may not be the chosen one. Many argue that although he has gained international approval needed to be president, he has not done the same within his own party. He is also untested in close elections; his only electoral victory was in a 2005 legislative race in which he ran unopposed.
In fact, many analysts believe that Maduro’s best shot at the presidency came last year when Chávez first got sick. He quickly took charge of the leadership of Venezuela. Now it appears that he is slated to run for governor of Carabobo, a state now run by a member of the MUD. Maduro himself has even denied that he is being considered as a successor to Chávez.
For his part, Maduro argues that the majority of Venezuelans will reelect Chávez on October 7. Should Chávez’s health take a turn for the worst, however, we may yet learn if he is as trusted as the Wikileaks cable claims.
