Tag Archives: Council of State

Jul
3
2012
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Who will Succeed Hugo Chávez?

Over the past several months, What’s Next Venezuela has reported on the uncertainty surrounding Hugo Chávez’s health, including the speculation about who will take Chávez’s place on the ballot should he be unable to stand for re-election on October 7. Over the next several weeks, we will profile the most likely successors to Hugo Chávez, starting today with Elías Jaua.

VICE PRESIDENT ELÍAS JAUA

elias jaua Who will Succeed Hugo Chávez?

Courtesy of: Reuters

Named earlier this year as the head of the newly-created Council of State, current Vice President and Minister of Agriculture Elías Jaua is one of several on the short list to succeed Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

Since the return of Chavez’s cancer in February, Jaua has spent significant time in the spotlight. Polls show that he is the most popular member of Chávez’s party, after the president himself. In recent months, he has served as a proxy for Chávez, leading rallies, giving speeches, and attacking the opposition while the president received treatment in Cuba. He remains the government’s point-man for denying any negative reports about President Chávez’s health; when bad news breaks in Venezuela about Chávez’s cancer, Jaua is often the first to brand the stories as rumors and publicly state that the president is in recovery.

He also made headlines after the public allegations of judicial corruption made by former Supreme Court judge Eladio Aponte Aponte. Aponte claims that Jaua held weekly meetings with judges of the Venezuelan high court, telling them how to rule on sensitive cases.

Despite his high profile, Jaua lacks the charisma and eloquence of Chávez, who seems to keep Jaua by his side for his fierce loyalty. Recently, the president showed his gratitude, by putting Jaua in charge of the new Council of State, which many have claimed is charged with planning the transition of power if Chávez succumbs to his battle with cancer. If recent history is any indication, Jaua may just have both the political clout and leadership skills to keep things on track within the PSUV, even if Chávez continues his long absences from the political scene.

Legally, he is next in line should Chávez no longer be able to serve. Article 233 of the Venezuelan constitution states that if the president cannot execute his responsibilities, the vice president will take his place until the next election. If Chávez dies, or is declared incapable performing his duties, Jaua will become the next president of Venezuela, at least until October. Such a scenario would only increase the likelihood that Jaua, as incumbent president, would seek outright election against MUD candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski. As of now, Jaua plans to run for governor of Miranda state in the fall, but if Chávez becomes gravely ill or incapacitated, anything goes.

Originally from the Miranda state, Jaua made his name as a student leader in the 90s. His first meeting with Chávez was in 1996, when he participated in the founding of the Fifth Republic Movement, which is now the PSUV. He was one of the authors of the 1999 Constitution, and has since held various positions under Chávez, mostly in economic roles. He was named Minister of Land and Agriculture in 2006 and Vice President in 2010.

Jaua is currently the default replacement for Chávez, and it’s clear, given his appointment to the Council of State, that he has the leader’s trust. But his apparent lack of personality may be a liability in what will certainly be a difficult election. Timing may be everything; if Chávez is able to win re-election himself he might simply pass on the reigns to Jaua to manage his government. But if his health takes a turn for the worst, he may need to pick someone with more public appeal to get his party past its biggest hurdle yet on October 7.

 
May
30
2012
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Chávez Convenes Possible Transition Body

chavez lot1 Chávez Convenes Possible Transition Body

Chávez and his closest advisors appear to be taking the first steps in arranging for a successor should the president lose his battle with cancer or become unable to seek re-election.

On April 30, Chávez announced the creation of the “Council of State,” declaring that its first task should be to present recommendations on Venezuela’s withdrawal from the Inter-American Commission on Human rights. The six-member council should be formally sworn in sometime in the coming weeks.

Under the 1999 Constitution, the president may convene such a body “to recommend policies of domestic interest regarding those issues that the president of the Republic recognizes to be of special transcendence and that require its opinion.” Chávez’s decision to convene this body only now — 13 years following the enactment of the constitution and after months of cancer treatments — indicates that the president’s illness is likely the event that has qualified as a matter of “special transcendence.”

The timing of this move, concurrent with news of Chávez’s failing health, has led experts and analysts to believe that the Council of State’s true purpose is to serve as a transitional body to lead Venezuela into the post-Chávez era — and possibly choose a successor. Following reports of infighting within Chávez’s own party, the Council will likely mediate between rival political factions and attempt to quash dissention within the PSUV in the event of Chávez’s death or incapacitation.

Other prognostications are bleaker: as What’s Next Venezuela guest blogger José Cardenas put it, “many see [the Council] as the first step toward the establishment of a junta to govern in Chávez’s absence or name a successor if Chávez is forced to step down.”

Chávez’s spokespeople have long maintained that the president is in good health and will stand for re-election. But the sudden formation of this council — made public as Chávez traveled back and forth to Cuba for cancer treatments — casts doubt on those rosy claims.

The members, meanwhile, claim the body serves only an advisory function.

“I don’t think this has anything to do with a transition government, it’s not been conceived that way at all … We don’t have power to take administrative decisions or pass laws,” council member Luis Britto said in an interview with Reuters.

elias jaua council of state Chávez Convenes Possible Transition Body

The Council is led by Elías Jaua, the vice-president. The other members of the Council are all close Chávez allies and mainly former government officials: Germán Mundaraín, former Ombudsman; Jorge García Carneiro, former Minister of Defense; José Vicente Rangel, former Vice-President; Luis Britto García, writer; Earle Herrera, Deputy for PSUV-Anzoátegui state; Roy Chaderton, former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Admiral Carlos Giacoppini Martínez and Luisa Estella Morales, President of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ).

The makeup of the group — which includes several plausible successors — suggests that Chávez has drawn close his closest confidants in an attempt to ensure that his socialist project will carry on, with or without him.

 
May
23
2012
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Chávez or No Chávez: Venezuela’s Future is at Stake

pic11 Chávez or No Chávez: Venezuela’s Future is at StakeWhat’s Next Venezuela is proud to re-introduce our Venezuelan guest blogger — el Petardo de Petare. In the coming months Petardo will offer his thoughts on Venezuelan political, economic and social issues with his characteristic wit and insightful analysis. In this first installment of the election season, Petardo offers his opinion on the ongoing saga regarding Hugo Chávez’s health.

Much has changed in Venezuela since my last commentary — yet much, as the proverb would have it, has stayed the same. The economy remains in bad shape, despite the government’s highly publicized attempts to prop it up with borrowed money. Indeed, our prices continue to inflate so quickly that even Chávez’s massive increase in the minimum wage will scarcely boost the purchasing power of the average Venezuelan. It is as much a struggle today to buy necessities for one’s family as it was before this heralded wage hike. That is, if you can even find the necessities. Shortages of the most basic goods — corn, coffee, rice, the staples of our very lifestyle — are widespread and affect Venezuelans of every stripe and political leaning.

Another grim subject, however, has lately displaced such issues in the media. The government, so skillful at controlling its image, has done its best to keep chatter of President Chávez’s cancer out of the news. Yet our entire country remains consumed, spellbound, and hungry for the truth. The PSUV’s relentless effort to suppress information means that we know only a few things for sure. Among those certainties: President Chávez is severely ill; preferring Cuba’s medical facilities to his own country’s, as he has continually traveled to Havana for treatment; he now intends to formally swear in the six-member “Council of State,” which will serve as a sort of proxy government until the president “recovers his strength”; Chávez himself claimed in a phone call this week that he will register and run in this October’s presidential election.

Between those scant facts, however, arise troubling questions. Just how serious is Chávez’s cancer? Has it spread to other areas of his body, as some journalists have reported? Will the disease claim his life? And, if it does, who will take his place in October’s election? Worse, what if he dies shortly afterwards? Who then are we really voting for? Try as it might, the PSUV cannot prevent media from asking these questions. Neither can it stop journalists and commentators from seeking to answer them.

The International media coverage (much of which appears on this website) has also focused on the spectacle — and with good reason. I have read speculative articles that seek to unearth the facts about Chávez’s health; I have also seen reports that simply presume the president will soon be dead, and go on to envision the future of Venezuela “after chavismo.”

Despite the morbid subject matter, I remain gratified that so many continue to report on the affairs of Venezuela. I am sure the drama of President Chávez’s battle with cancer will continue attracting attention–especially if the news takes a turn for the worse. I do not propose to add my own views to the equation; that is best left to the experts. I ask only that those reporting the story remember why it matters.

The most urgent story does not concern the fate of chavismo, nor of the man himself; it is the future of my country that matters most. So I beg of all media, in Venezuela and the world, that they do not attend so much to the titanic struggle between Hugo Chávez and his cancer that they neglect the less dramatic–but much more important–struggles of so many Venezuelans to live lives of dignity and security.

It is these stories I will share with you in the coming months. Venezuela faces challenges on many fronts, from infrastructure to crime to shortages of food and electricity. I believe my country can overcome these hurdles, but only if our leaders change course. If they don’t, the health of our president will be the least of our worries.