Tag Archives: price controls

Aug
26
2013
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ICYMI: Chavez’s Inflation Bites His Successor

Wall Street Journal
August 25, 2013
By Mary O’Grady

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Courtesy of: European Pressphoto Agency

Hyperinflation and political witch hunts seem to go together. Just ask the Venezuelan opposition.

With the bolivar collapsing and prices spiraling higher, the government alleged this month that its No. 1 adversary, former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, is linked to a prostitution ring that was using minors in the state of Miranda, where he is governor.

Lest that not be enough to turn Venezuela’s socially conservative working-classes against the popular Mr. Capriles, a leading congressman from the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) used gutter talk on the floor of the national assembly to accuse the governor of homosexuality.

Don’t suppose for a minute that this mudslinging is merely about destroying Mr. Capriles. The ruling chavistas, led by President Nicolás Maduro, need a circus because there is no bread—and that’s not a metaphor. At times in Venezuela, there really is no bread. Earlier this year there was, for a time, no toilet paper. Mr. Maduro knows he is in trouble.

The “proof” of the allegations against Mr. Capriles’s chief of staff, who is accused of running the sex ring, cannot be shown to the public, according to Mr. Maduro. He says that the “videos and photos” that the government confiscated in a raid are of “un-publishable orgies.” Venezuelans will have to use their imaginations while trusting the courts—now controlled by the military government—and the government itself to get to the bottom of it all. Developments will be reported on television, which is almost exclusively state-controlled and where most Venezuelans get their news.

Mr. Capriles has said that the allegations are an attempt to distract the population from the real problems in the country. The charges are certainly well timed. An official 46% devaluation in April took the bolivar-to-dollar exchange rate to 6.3 from 4.3. Those who actually need dollars are unlikely to get them at that rate. Instead they have to go to the black market, where one greenback costs as much as 38 bolivars, up from 22 in March.

The government forecasts that inflation will hit 40% this year. But Johns Hopkins University economist Steve Hanke, director of the Cato Institute’s Troubled Currency Project, says that the soaring cost for the bolivar in the market translates into an implied annual inflation rate of more than 250%.

Earlier this month Caracas-based economist José Manuel Puente described the perfect storm to the Los Angeles Times this way: “The slowdown in economic growth, high and persistent inflation and high levels of scarcities [of basic foodstuffs] will combine to make Venezuela’s the worst-performing economy on the continent, despite the extraordinary oil boom that the country is still benefiting from.”

A mid-July survey by the Venezuelan polling company IVAD, posted on the website lapatilla.com, suggests Mr. Maduro is having no luck dodging the blame like his predecessor Hugo Chávez did so deftly. Asked what are the principal problems facing the country, almost 82% of respondents named crime. More than 53% also pointed to shortages. The scarcity is caused by the price controls that the government is using to try to hold down inflation. Those controls could explain why only 31% named “the high cost of living.”

But more than 65% said the economic situation was worse or much worse than one year ago, and more than half blamed either the national government or Mr. Maduro for the country’s problems.

Because the allegations against Mr. Capriles by the PSUV included a pejorative term for a homosexual, gay-rights groups took offense. But Venezuela’s homosexuals needn’t feel special. Hate speech as a political tool has been common practice in Venezuela’s military government for more than a decade. Catholics, Jews, entrepreneurs and the bourgeoisie have all been on the receiving end.

Mr. Maduro, coached as he is by Fidel Castro, immediately recognized that gay rights are a priority for many members of the international left. So in the aftermath of the impolitic comments by his colleague in Congress, he quickly seized a gay-pride flag to wave while he continued his verbal assaults against Mr. Capriles.

Political nonconformists regularly singled out by chavista politicians for ridicule and acrimony won’t get off so easily. This week Mr. Maduro is expected to try again to force through congress an “enabling law” that will allow him to rule by decree.

Opposition Congressman Richard Mardo has already been stripped of his congressional immunity and is slated for trial on corruption charges. Other opponents are being investigated. The Venezuelan daily El Nacional reported this month that more than one third of congressional sessions in the first half of the year were spent “harassing the opposition,” including with physical violence.

The goal is to drum up mass hysteria against opponents. Apparently Mr. Maduro has decided that if inflation cannot be contained, Mr. Capriles and his allies will be.

To read this article at Wall Street Journal, please click here.

 
Jun
11
2013
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ICYMI: Looking for toilet paper in Venezuela? There’s an app for that

Financial Times
June 10, 2013
By Benedict Mander

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Courtesy of: Reuters

It turns out that President Nicolas Maduro thinks that the plan to introduce food rationing in Zulia, Venezuela’s most populous state, is “crazy”.

Regardless of whether he always thought that, or whether, perhaps, the increasingly unpopular president was responding to widespread rejection of the plan, he’s right – it is not the way to put an end to the problem of shortages that has become so acute that someone has even invented an app to help Venezuelans locate specific goods they are having difficulty finding.

Maduro was also right when he said that “the answer to our problems is to produce more”.

Let’s just forget for the moment that in saying this he was rather undermining the Zulia governor, Francisco Arias Cardenas, who had denied that the scheme even amounted to rationing in the first place, and that in fact it was aimed at preventing smuggling (if you wanted to do something about that, you probably wouldn’t produce more, but instead perhaps try and do something about the irresistible arbitrage opportunities in Colombia thanks to Venezuela’s price controls, or at the very least introduce stronger controls on the border).

Let’s also ignore the fact that the government has already put in place another rationing scheme in Zulia, for petrol, which by Maduro’s logic ought probably be pretty “crazy” too. Again, officials insist the idea is to prevent gasoline contraband, which is indeed rife in Zulia since it is magnificently profitable – some suggest it is an even bigger business in Venezuela than the cocaine trade.

In any case, increased production would certainly go a long way to solving Venezuela’s shortages problem. Ideally it would be an increase in the production of the goods that are scarce, especially food, but increased oil production might do too, as crude exports could provide the dollars needed to import more. This would probably be more practical in the shorter term, given the problems Venezuela has producing just about anything that is not oil (although that is not to say state oil company PDVSA does not have serious challenges of its own).

The problem is that, in the current conditions, Venezuelan businesses are unlikely to start producing much more. In order for this to happen, a lot needs to change: for starters, the business climate must improve, and that includes doing something about price and currency controls, something which Maduro has shown no signs of doing. And don’t expect state companies to pick up the slack – the government is even said to have seriously considered the offer of Venezuela’s largest private company, Polar, to help run underperforming state-owned food processing plants.

The app that aims to help Venezuela’s long-suffering shoppers, known as Abasteceme (or Supply Me) and which uses Google Maps and “crowdsourcing” to enable users to notify one another where a certain product is for sale, has so far only been downloaded 12,000 times. It is a scheme that promises to be infinitely more successful than Zulia’s still-born rationing plans.

To read this article at Financial Times, please click here.

 
May
16
2013
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ICYMI: Venezuela is Running Out of Toilet Paper

Associated Press
May 16, 2013
By Fabiola Sanchez and Karl Ritter

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Courtesy of: CNN

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — First milk, butter, coffee and cornmeal ran short. Now Venezuela is running out of the most basic of necessities — toilet paper.

Blaming political opponents for the shortfall, as it does for other shortages, the embattled socialist government says it will import 50 million rolls to boost supplies.

That was little comfort to consumers struggling to find toilet paper on Wednesday.

“This is the last straw,” said Manuel Fagundes, a shopper hunting for tissue in downtown Caracas. “I’m 71 years old and this is the first time I’ve seen this.”

One supermarket visited by The Associated Press in the capital on Wednesday was out of toilet paper. Another had just received a fresh batch, and it quickly filled up with shoppers as the word spread.

“I’ve been looking for it for two weeks,” said Cristina Ramos. “I was told that they had some here and now I’m in line.”

Economists say Venezuela’s shortages stem from price controls meant to make basic goods available to the poorest parts of society and the government’s controls on foreign currency.

“State-controlled prices — prices that are set below market-clearing price — always result in shortages. The shortage problem will only get worse, as it did over the years in the Soviet Union,” said Steve Hanke, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.

President Nicolas Maduro, who was selected by the dying Hugo Chavez to carry on his “Bolivarian revolution,” claims that anti-government forces, including the private sector, are causing the shortages in an effort to destabilize the country.

The government this week announced it would import 760,000 tons of food and 50 million rolls of toilet paper.

Commerce Minister Alejandro Fleming blamed the shortage of toilet tissue on “excessive demand” built up as a result of “a media campaign that has been generated to disrupt the country.”

“The revolution will bring the country the equivalent of 50 million rolls of toilet paper,” he was quoted as saying Tuesday by state news agency AVN. “We are going to saturate the market so that our people calm down.”

Finance Minister Nelson Merentes said the government was also addressing the lack of foreign currency, which has resulted in the suspension of foreign supplies of raw materials, equipment and spare parts to Venezuelan companies, disrupting their production.

“We are making progress … we have to work very hard,” Merentes told reporters Wednesday.

Many factories operate at half capacity because the currency controls make it hard for them to pay for imported parts and materials. Business leaders say some companies verge on bankruptcy because they cannot extend lines of credit with foreign suppliers.

Merentes said the government had met the U.S. dollar requests of some 1,500 small- and medium-sized companies facing supply problems, and was reviewing requests from a similar number of larger companies.

Chavez imposed currency controls a decade ago trying to stem capital flight as his government expropriated large land parcels and dozens of businesses.

Anointed by Chavez as his successor before the president died from cancer, Maduro won a close presidential election April 14 against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, who refused to accept the result, claiming Maduro won through fraud and voter intimidation. He filed a complaint to the Supreme Court, asking for the vote to be annulled, though that’s highly unlikely to happen since the court is packed with government-friendly justices.

Patience is wearing thin among consumers who face shortages and long lines at supermarkets and pharmacies. Last month, Venezuela’s scarcity index reached its highest level since 2009, while the 12-month inflation rate has risen to nearly 30 percent. Shoppers often spend several days looking for basic items, and stock up when they find them.

Fleming, the commerce minister, said monthly consumption of toilet paper was normally 125 million rolls, but that current demand “leads us to think that 40 million more are required.”

“We will bring in 50 million to show those groups that they won’t make us bow down,” he said.

To read this article at Associated Press, please click here.