May
13
2013
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With the Economy in Dire Straits, Maduro Scapegoats a Beloved Venezuelan Company

pan0.jpg.520.360.thumb  e1368469039817 With the Economy in Dire Straits, Maduro Scapegoats a Beloved Venezuelan Company

Courtesy of: El Universal

Nicolás Maduro and his socialist government cannot claim that they were not warned. Economists have long predicted that a Venezuelan economy propped up by excessive borrowing and an unsustainably high oil market would collapse spectacularly. Hugo Chávez, his cancer kept at bay just long enough to secure reelection, spent enough borrowed money in his final months to postpone the crash until Maduro had taken control. But the reckoning was inevitable. Now Maduro, eager for a scapegoat, is intensifying his attacks on the private sector, taking aim at Venezuelans’ most beloved company: Empresas Polar.

Polar is a pillar of the Venezuelan economy, producing staple goods from cornflour to household supplies and the nation’s most popular beer. Maduro issued his latest threat against the company on Saturday, when he accused the company of economic “sabotage” and demanded company President Lorenzo Mendoza to appear before the government to “explain the situation.” It was the latest in a series of escalating rhetoric against Polar, and a disturbing sign that Maduro refuses to learn the lessons inflicted on Venezuelans by years of failed socialist policies. Mendoza is scheduled meet with Vice-president Jorge Arreaza on Monday and with Maduro on Tuesday.

In a press conference held on Monday before the scheduled meetings, Mendoza addressed Maduro’s statements. He noted that Polar’s cornflour brand, PAN, operates at 100 percent capacity, but has only a 48 percent stake in the Venezuelan market, making it impossible to meet the country’s full demand. Thus far this year, Polar has produced 10 percent – 15,000 tons – more than last year. The remaining 52 percent of the market is comprised primarily of government-owned businesses, which are producing at less than 40 percent of their capacity. In response to Maduro’s accusation of “hoarding,” Mendoza stressed that Polar simply cannot hoard products to begin with since every step of the production and distribution process is regulated by government overseers.

As economists have noted, the shortages and inflation Maduro blames on the private sector are in fact caused by the government’s own policies. Rampant expropriations, price controls and other heavy-handed policies have harmed business and left farmland idle, sapping more than 11 percent from the country’s gross domestic product between 2005 and 2010.

Inflation is soaring, the nation’s debt continues to mount, and a currency devaluation has crippled Venezuelan’s purchasing power. As What’s Next contributor Joel Hirst observed, the economic crisis has left Maduro in the “awkward position of blaming Venezuela’s hobbled private sector for the failure of his own socialist policies.” The Central Bank’s scarcity index for Venezuela, which measures the percentage of goods unavailable in the market, rose to its highest number since it began tracking in April, 2009.

The facts, of course, could not be clearer. The company persevered under the yoke of Chávez’s policies, and continues to provide the goods Venezuelans need even as government controls force Polar and other companies to operate at a loss. These private companies are Venezuela’s best hope for brighter economic days; Maduro, in a desperate bid to save his own political skin, has chosen to marginalize them even further. It is ordinary Venezuelans, however, who will suffer the consequences.

 
Feb
8
2012
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Setting the Record Straight on Venezuela’s Voter Turnout

screenshot1 147x150 Setting the Record Straight on Venezuela’s Voter TurnoutWhat’s Next Venezuela is proud to welcome Joel D. Hirst as our newest contributor. Currently, Hirst is a Human Freedom Fellow at the George W. Bush Institute, and a Principal for Cordoba Group International. Formerly, Hirst was a Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC. He also served as a U.S. Agency for International Development Country Representative in Uganda (2008-2010) and Acting Country Representative and Deputy Country Representative in Venezuela (2004-2008). He tweets at www.twitter.com/joelhirst.

This Sunday, February 12th, the Venezuelan opposition – led by the Table for Democratic Unity (MUD for its acronym in Spanish) – is going to the polls to choose the candidate who will face Venezuela’s authoritarian regime in the already less-than free and fair elections of October 7, 2012.

President Hugo Chávez seems to be concerned. He has already gone out of his way on various occasions to say that the primaries are an “imperial strategy”; that he “does not care who wins” and that voter participation will be very low. Over this last point, Chávez and his proxy – newly appointed National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello – have been particularly insistent.

For this reason, it is particularly important to set the record straight on voter turnout in primary elections. In the recent Republican primary vote in New Hampshire, voter turnout was approximately 245,000.  Taken from an estimated total of 990,000 eligible voters, this represents 25% of the electorate. In Florida, the voter turnout during the recent primary election was 1.6 million. Total voter registration in Florida is 11.1 million, making this turnout roughly 14% of the total. South Carolina turnout was roughly 590,000; with a total of registered voters at roughly 2.5 million, the turnout in the state registers at 23%. Naturally, I have left off the caucus states because that process is significantly different than a simple vote.

Voter turnout in the United States is generally lower than in Venezuela. However, Venezuela has never carried out a primary election before; so there is no historical precedent upon which to judge the result. In 2008, Venezuela’s electoral registry had 16.3 million people. This means that if Venezuelan turnout followed Florida, a good showing would be 2.2 million voters. Should the turnout follow the pattern of South Carolina, it would be 3.7 million votes.

Given the threats that President Chávez has been making against the opposition, and the voter intimidation of the more than five million people who depend directly on the government for their well-being, if the Venezuelan opposition sees a turnout of two million, it would be well within the norm. This is roughly the number that independent pollsters have been predicting.

Nevertheless, whatever the result, President Chávez will attempt to disparage it as insignificant. Mr. Chávez should remember that in the 2009 internal elections of his own party – the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) – just over 500,000 voters participated. All of a sudden, two million is looking pretty good.

 
Aug
8
2011
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In Case You Missed It…Venezuelan Opposition’s Increasing Unity spells problems for Chavez

Venezuelan Opposition’s Increasing Unity Spells Problems for Chavez

By Joel D. Hirst
The Commentator

August 6, 2011

Last week, in a show of increasing political unity, Venezuela’s opposition parties – grouped under the umbrella “Table for Democratic Unity” (MUD for its acronym in Spanish) — made an important step forward. They announced that they would go to the next presidential election with a “unitary card”.

Traditionally, each party has selected its candidate for the presidential elections before complex negotiations take place to present unitary candidates. This has often made the ballot large and unwieldy and given the feeling of a “splintering” of the opposition or the government.

President Chavez tried to address this problem with his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) – but has recently backtracked and called for a “Patriotic Pole” again. In response, the MUD has, for this election, agreed to create a unity platform – whereby all the parties come together under one new banner.

For many in the opposition, this was very difficult; it requires them to surrender their political party for the good of the opposition as a whole.  For example, Governor of Miranda, Henrique Capriles Radonski — should he win the primary – would have to confront President Chavez under this new coalition banner and not “Primero Justicia”; a party to which Capriles has been very faithful and has helped to build from nothing into the powerful national force it is today.

And so, coming on the heels of a unanimous decision to head to opposition primaries, it seems that the Venezuelan opposition is headed in the right direction.

This does not mean that the elections of 2012 will be easy; President Chavez will undoubtedly seek to mobilise all the tools in his not unsubstantial arsenal to swing elections in his favour.

First, the socialist leader has a track record of using the resources of the state for elections. In 2009, for example, for the referendum on indefinite re-election, he drew down $12 Billion from the foreign reserves which he spent on that campaign. He also uses the fear factor, telling Venezuelan civil servants (an amazing five million in number) that he will know if they vote against him. And there are supposedly one million fake names on the voter registration lists which are impossible to audit because the government refuses to release the addresses of the voters to international auditors on the grounds of “privacy”.

Most importantly though, the revolutionary government uses an obscure administrative procedure called “disabling” to remove popular opposition figures from the field. This is done via the country’s Inspector General’s office, there called the “Controller”.

The Controller targets leaders and opens administrative investigations on a partisan basis – ruling that this or that official has been “disabled” due to administrative findings. Not only is this a hindrance to the opposition, but it directly violates the Venezuelan constitution, which states that the only people forbidden from participating in the electoral process are those convicted in a court of law for a crime.

Using this process, the government silenced the popular former Chacao Mayor, Leopoldo Lopez. Lopez took his case to the Inter-American Human Rights Court in Costa Rica – where a ruling is pending in August — and has decided to participate in the MUD’s primary elections, in the hope that a victory there would force the Venezuelan government to remove his “disabling”.

The government has also threatened to open an administrative investigation into Governor Radonski — who has led in the opposition’s primary polls.  There are more than 400 other Venezuelan’s who have been illegally removed from the electoral process.

The Venezuelan opposition continues to make important steps toward unity. Apparently having learned the lessons of past disasters, they have agreed to set aside differences in order to seek to win power in the beleaguered nation.

For President Chavez – whose energy is sapped by his fight against cancer and whose ministers, apparently fearing loss of power, have allegedly evacuated $10 billion to foreign accounts – this is not good news.

Whatever happens in 2012, the results will be pivotal for the future of Venezuela; with repercussions not only in that country but across the hemisphere, including for the United States.

The international community should watch the process closely – not only on election day but for the entire election period.

Joel D. Hirst is an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC. He tweets at @joelhirst